From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
A conversation with Frank Holmes on crypto, commodities, and today’s investment opportunities.
February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The Supreme Court voted 6–3 to block President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose his “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that the Constitution grants tariff authority to Congress alone. Justices Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh dissented.
The case centered on Trump’s 10% global tariff and the higher reciprocal tariffs layered on select trading partners. Oral arguments were heard in November. The Court concluded that IEEPA did not authorize such broad tariff power.
A concurrent research paper from the New York Fed concluded that American consumers bear most of the tariff cost.
February 19, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 18, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Early February brought a sharp sell-off in SaaS and AI infrastructure names. Some high-growth software stocks fell as much as 80% from prior peaks.
Retail investors, duly trained by Wall Street’s sell-side, stepped in “buy the dip” in “software as a service” (SaaS).
February 19, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 18, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.
After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”
For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!
February 17, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The crash was a major structural shock that wiped out leveraged positions and forced necessary, but painful, deleveraging across the digital asset ecosystem.
Did irresponsible marketing campaigns by certain platforms contribute to the crash? Again, I believe yes. When you incentivize users to treat a tokenized hedge fund like a stablecoin and then allow unlimited leverage on top of that, risk is amplified.
As massive as the crash was, it may have been necessary medicine. Sometimes excess leverage needs to be flushed from the system before the next move higher can begin. I believe we’re in the last stages of that process.
February 17, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Gallup reports that 62.1% of Americans describe themselves as thriving in 2025, down 2.7 percentage points from 2024. Yet, only 59.2% expect a high quality of life in five years, the lowest reading on record. We wonder how many of the 40.8% of the naysayers were trading on Robinhood…
Our goal at Grey Swan is to make sure we’re in the cohort of thrivers now, five years from now… and beyond.
To that end, folks who build durable positions tend to focus on balance sheets, cost structures, and who controls the pipes — whether those pipes carry rockets, data, oil, or dollars.
February 17, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
In the past eight-day trading period, over 20% of S&P 500 stocks have had at least one intraday decline of at least 7%.
Typically, that kind of volatility occurs in the middle of a market correction or crash – not this close to all-time highs.
February 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Mustafa Suleyman, who leads Microsoft’s AI initiatives, told the Financial Times that most white-collar professional tasks could be automated within 12 to 18 months.
Lawyers, accountants, marketers, project managers — anything related to desk work faces compression.
Challenger data showed 7,624 January layoffs attributed directly to AI — about 7% of the month’s total. Since 2023, AI has been linked to nearly 79,500 announced job cuts. Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Byrd cautioned clients that measurable macroeconomic impact may lag several years.
In Silicon Valley, Mercor quietly hired tens of thousands of highly credentialed contractors at $45 to $250 per hour to train large language models for OpenAI and Anthropic.
February 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Despite a stock market within 3% of its all-time highs, your portfolio likely feels a bigger pinch right now.
Fears of high spending on AI are leading to another pullback in the market’s biggest names. The Mag 7 stocks are collectively 10% off their peak, and now in correction territory.
February 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Private education and health services accounted for the bulk of job creation over the past year.
Over the last twelve months, that category added roughly 780,000 positions. Excluding those gains, the economy shed approximately 350,000 jobs.
Manufacturing, the purported object of Trump’s tariff strategy, declined by about 100,000 in 2025. Transportation and warehousing fell by more than 100,000. Professional and business services contracted. Information and financial activities declined.
Federal employment dropped again in January, down 42,000. The civilian federal workforce now sits roughly 11% below its October 2024 peak.
February 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Most investors are familiar with the price-to-earnings, or PE, ratio. But what if you invert that, and divide earnings by price? You get what’s called the “earnings yield.”
Earnings yield on the S&P 500 is near a 100-year low.
February 11, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Moody’s Mark Zandi urged restraint. “I wouldn’t exhale,” he wrote. The data coming out of the Bureau of (be)Labor(ed) Statistics (BLS) is still undergoing an overhaul from years of wonky miscalculations.
Downward revisions erased much of last year’s gains. Since April, aggregate job growth has barely moved.
Over the past twelve months, private education and health services added roughly 780,000 jobs. Remove those gains, and the broader economy shed about 350,000 positions.
February 11, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
In 2025, the top 10% of households owned 93% of U.S. stocks, driving wealth concentration to 60-year highs. Those high-income households accounted for nearly 60% of total personal spending by the third quarter of 2025.
Wage disparity and an asset wealth gap define fractious politics in this midterm year. And help explain why both parties appear to be talking only to themselves.
