From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
A conversation with Joel Bowman on investment opportunities in Argentina and around the world
January 28, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Trump is trying to force two converging economic events that haven’t aligned like this in over 40 years.
The first is the cost of borrowing. After the fastest rate-hiking cycle in decades, rates are rolling over. Trump wants them at 1%. Jerome Powell’s term ends at the Fed on May 15. The path is being cleared for a true believer in lower interest rates to take his spot.
The second is the cost of living. Oil has fallen from $95 to just over $60 in a year. Gas is averaging $2.88 nationally. And because oil feeds into everything — shipping, food, plastics — falling prices cascade across the economy. The capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro is not a coincidence. Venezuela is one of the leading exporters in the OPEC block of oil producers.
January 27, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
January 26, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
January 28, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
A push for lower interest rates, jawboning by Trump administration officials, and concerns over U.S. debt levels are giving the dollar a good thrashing.
Dollar-denominated assets, from global commodities to U.S. stocks — even competing fiat currencies — will see prices rise versus the U.S. variety until this trend shifts.
January 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
January 22, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
January 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
We’ve entered a new territory on Wall Street: for the first time in recorded history, zero strategists are predicting a down year.
Not “most are bullish.”
Not “nearly all expect gains.”
Zero bearish calls for 2026.
Unanimity so complete it resembles a vote in a collapsing authoritarian state.
January 22, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The dollar’s share of global reserves is now roughly 40%, down from 60% in 2016. No other fiat currency filled the gap. Gold did.
That is the only fact you need to understand the long-term arc.
After the West demonstrated it could seize reserves, “safe” became a new word. Gold has no counterparty. It cannot be frozen with an executive order. It does not require permission to settle.
January 21, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Having said all that, why does President Trump want Greenland so badly (other than as retribution for not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize)?
He insists it’s for national security, but, as I mentioned earlier, the U.S. military already has broad access to the island, as spelled out in the 1951 agreement signed by the U.S. and Denmark. Further, Greenland is under the protection of NATO, of which the U.S. is a member. If Russia or China tried to attack it, Article 5 of the treaty would be triggered, activating NATO forces.
Recent reporting suggests that some of Trump’s wealthiest backers see Greenland not as a military outpost or mining play, but as a blank slate. According to Reuters, influential tech investors—including Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen—have pitched the idea of turning parts of Greenland into a so-called “freedom city,” offering a low-regulation, quasi-autonomous hub for next-gen technologies.
January 21, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Japan’s 40-year yield climbed to a record 4.21%.
Japan holds $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasurys.
When their domestic yields spike, Japanese capital returns home. That means selling U.S. assets: stocks, bonds, ETFs. That selling pressure cascaded through the global financial system.
This mechanism isn’t new.
January 21, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Social spending in Europe has roughly doubled in the past 30 years. But only in 2025 has defense spending returned to levels last seen when the Berlin Wall was still standing.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated on NBC’s Meet the Press over the weekend that the US has spent 22 trillion dollars on its commitment to NATO. Or, roughly two-thirds of the U.S.’s $38 trillion in national debt.
Social spending in Europe has roughly doubled in the past 30 years. But only in 2025 has defense spending returned to levels last seen when the Berlin Wall was still standing.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated on NBC’s Meet the Press over the weekend that the US has spent 22 trillion dollars on its commitment to NATO. Or, roughly two-thirds of the U.S.’s $38 trillion in national debt.
January 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Trump boarded Air Force One this morning for the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. It’s been one year to the day since his second inauguration. At this year’s summit — already set to break attendance records with 65 heads of state and over 850 global CEOs — Greenland is top of the agenda.
“We’re going to do something on Greenland whether they like it or not,” Trump told reporters earlier this month.
January 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Greenland sits at the confluence of North America, Europe, and the Arctic.
As the polar ice melts, new shipping lanes open between Asia and Europe — cutting weeks off traditional routes and escalating the race for Arctic dominance.
Secretary of State William H. Seward, the same Seward who bought Alaska from Russia, first advocated for purchasing Greenland in 1867. Again, in 1946, president Harry Truman made a formal, but secret, offer of $100 million in gold to Denmark which Copenhagen declined.
January 16, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Mining stocks amplify everything. First Majestic went from losing money to 45% margins without building anything new. They just held the line on costs while silver did the heavy lifting.
That cuts both ways. If silver drops hard, margins compress just as fast. Same leverage, opposite direction.
The miners with the lowest costs and cleanest balance sheets will hold up best in a pullback and capture the most upside if the deficit keeps grinding.
January 16, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Economists at Goldman Sachs said this morning they expect core inflation to finish the year around 2% even while GDP rises at a “surprisingly strong” 2.5% clip.
In our view, their inflation forecast is optimistic. Their GDP call? Modest.
The last time we pumped this much liquidity into the system — 2020 through 2022—the result was a manic asset bubble, runaway inflation, and an epic hangover at the Fed.
Goldman’s optimism has triggered a fresh round of bullish bets: cyclical stocks are rallying, “dispersion” in the S&P 500 is spiking, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice before Jerome Powell gets kicked out of Washington at the end of his term on May 15.
January 16, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Anecdotally, we’re hearing stories of warehouses full of GPUs sitting unused for lack of energy to power them. It’s a natural feature of the heavy capital investment in new machines. The grid has to catch up!
While Trump’s great reset rolls on in 2026, keep an eye on modular nuclear reactors and increased demand for uranium, natural gas and related resources.
